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Thursday, November 29, 2012

Cox and Archer: Why $16 Trillion Only Hints at the True U.S. Debt

From the WSJ online.
Hiding the government's liabilities from the public makes it seem that we can tax our way out of mounting deficits. We can't.
By CHRIS COX AND BILL ARCHER

A decade and a half ago, both of us served on President Clinton's Bipartisan Commission on Entitlement and Tax Reform, the forerunner to President Obama's recent National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. In 1994 we predicted that, unless something was done to control runaway entitlement spending, Medicare and Social Security would eventually go bankrupt or confront severe benefit cuts.

Eighteen years later, nothing has been done. Why? The usual reason is that entitlement reform is the third rail of American politics. That explanation presupposes voter demand for entitlements at any cost, even if it means bankrupting the nation.

A better explanation is that the full extent of the problem has remained hidden from policy makers and the public because of less than transparent government financial statements. How else could responsible officials claim that Medicare and Social Security have the resources they need to fulfill their commitments for years to come?

As Washington wrestles with the roughly $600 billion "fiscal cliff" and the 2013 budget, the far greater fiscal challenge of the U.S. government's unfunded pension and health-care liabilities remains offstage. The truly important figures would appear on the federal balance sheet—if the government prepared an accurate one.

But it hasn't. For years, the government has gotten by without having to produce the kind of financial statements that are required of most significant for-profit and nonprofit enterprises. The U.S. Treasury "balance sheet" does list liabilities such as Treasury debt issued to the public, federal employee pensions, and post-retirement health benefits. But it does not include the unfunded liabilities of Medicare, Social Security and other outsized and very real obligations.

As a result, fiscal policy discussions generally focus on current-year budget deficits, the accumulated national debt, and the relationships between these two items and gross domestic product. We most often hear about the alarming $15.96 trillion national debt (more than 100% of GDP), and the 2012 budget deficit of $1.1 trillion (6.97% of GDP). As dangerous as those numbers are, they do not begin to tell the story of the federal government's true liabilities.

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David Klein
The actual liabilities of the federal government—including Social Security, Medicare, and federal employees' future retirement benefits—already exceed $86.8 trillion, or 550% of GDP. For the year ending Dec. 31, 2011, the annual accrued expense of Medicare and Social Security was $7 trillion. Nothing like that figure is used in calculating the deficit. In reality, the reported budget deficit is less than one-fifth of the more accurate figure.

Why haven't Americans heard about the titanic $86.8 trillion liability from these programs? One reason: The actual figures do not appear in black and white on any balance sheet. But it is possible to discover them. Included in the annual Medicare Trustees' report are separate actuarial estimates of the unfunded liability for Medicare Part A (the hospital portion), Part B (medical insurance) and Part D (prescription drug coverage).

As of the most recent Trustees' report in April, the net present value of the unfunded liability of Medicare was $42.8 trillion. The comparable balance sheet liability for Social Security is $20.5 trillion.

Were American policy makers to have the benefit of transparent financial statements prepared the way public companies must report their pension liabilities, they would see clearly the magnitude of the future borrowing that these liabilities imply. Borrowing on this scale could eclipse the capacity of global capital markets—and bankrupt not only the programs themselves but the entire federal government.

These real-world impacts will be felt when currently unfunded liabilities need to be paid. In theory, the Medicare and Social Security trust funds have at least some money to pay a portion of the bills that are coming due. In actuality, the cupboard is bare: 100% of the payroll taxes for these programs were spent in the same year they were collected.

In exchange for the payroll taxes that aren't paid out in benefits to current retirees in any given year, the trust funds got nonmarketable Treasury debt. Now, as the baby boomers' promised benefits swamp the payroll-tax collections from today's workers, the government has to swap the trust funds' nonmarketable securities for marketable Treasury debt. The Treasury will then have to sell not only this debt, but far more, in order to pay the benefits as they come due.

When combined with funding the general cash deficits, these multitrillion-dollar Treasury operations will dominate the capital markets in the years ahead, particularly given China's de-emphasis of new investment in U.S. Treasurys in favor of increasing foreign direct investment, and Japan's and Europe's own sovereign-debt challenges.

When the accrued expenses of the government's entitlement programs are counted, it becomes clear that to collect enough tax revenue just to avoid going deeper into debt would require over $8 trillion in tax collections annually. That is the total of the average annual accrued liabilities of just the two largest entitlement programs, plus the annual cash deficit.

Nothing like that $8 trillion amount is available for the IRS to target. According to the most recent tax data, all individuals filing tax returns in America and earning more than $66,193 per year have a total adjusted gross income of $5.1 trillion. In 2006, when corporate taxable income peaked before the recession, all corporations in the U.S. had total income for tax purposes of $1.6 trillion. That comes to $6.7 trillion available to tax from these individuals and corporations under existing tax laws.

In short, if the government confiscated the entire adjusted gross income of these American taxpayers, plus all of the corporate taxable income in the year before the recession, it wouldn't be nearly enough to fund the over $8 trillion per year in the growth of U.S. liabilities. Some public officials and pundits claim we can dig our way out through tax increases on upper-income earners, or even all taxpayers. In reality, that would amount to bailing out the Pacific Ocean with a teaspoon. Only by addressing these unsustainable spending commitments can the nation's debt and deficit problems be solved.

Neither the public nor policy makers will be able to fully understand and deal with these issues unless the government publishes financial statements that present the government's largest financial liabilities in accordance with well-established norms in the private sector. When the new Congress convenes in January, making the numbers clear—and establishing policies that finally address them before it is too late—should be a top order of business.

Mr. Cox, a former chairman of the House Republican Policy Committee and the Securities and Exchange Commission, is president of Bingham Consulting LLC. Mr. Archer, a former chairman of the House Ways & Means Committee, is a senior policy adviser at PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

A version of this article appeared November 27, 2012, on page A17 in the U.S. edition of The Wall Street Journal, with the headline: Why $16 Trillion Only Hints at the True U.S. Debt.

Worship Gatherings are not Always Spectacular, but they are Always Supernatural."


Found this at Take Your Vitamin Z today.
Worship gatherings are not always spectacular, but they are always supernatural. And if a church looks for or works for the spectacular, she may miss the supernatural. If a person enters a gathering to be wowed with something impressive, with a style that fits him just right, with an order of service and song selection designed just the right way, that person may miss the supernatural presence of God. Worship is supernatural whenever people come hungry to respond, react, and receive from God for who He is and what He has done. A church worshipping as a Creature of the Word doesn’t show up to perform or be entertained; she comes desperate and needy, thirsty for grace, receiving from the Lord and the body of Christ, and then gratefully receiving what she needs as she offers her praise— the only proper response to the God who saves us.
- Geiger, Eric; Chandler, Matt; Patterson, Josh . Creature of the Word: The Jesus-Centered Church

Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Leading and Submitting


Likewise, wives, be subject to your own husbands, so that even if some do not obey the word, they may be won without a word by the conduct of their wives, when they see your respectful and pure conduct. . . . For this is how the holy women who hoped in God used to adorn themselves, by submitting to their own husbands, as Sarah obeyed Abraham, calling him lord. . . . Likewise, husbands, live with your wives in an understanding way, showing honor to the woman as the weaker vessel, since they are heirs with you of the grace of life, so that your prayers may not be hindered.  (1 Peter 3:1-7 ESV)



I found this quote today in my file under husbands and wives so did not use it Sunday when I preached through 1 Peter 3:1-7 so I thought I would quote it here:

"The husband is to be willing to be crucified for his wife, and those husbands, who by the grace of God are able to truly love their wives in this way, as a general rule, don't have any problems with submissive wives, so wives submit and remember Christ submitted. Husbands love and remember Christ has loved. - John Chrysostom

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Israel, Gaza, and 'Divine Right'


Israel, Gaza, 'Divine Right,' and John Piper

The Story: After eight days of bloody conflict, Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire, The New York Times reported yesterday. Five Israelis and more than 150 Palestinians have been killed along the Israel-Gaza border during the past week.

Such events raise typical and salient questions. Does Israel possess a "divine right" to the "Promised Land" in the Middle East? What is the "Promised Land," anyway? The interminable Israeli-Palestinian conflict has always been freighted with biblical significance; Israel, after all, isn't calling their anti-Hamas campaign "Operation Pillar of Cloud" for nothing.
But are such appropriations legitimate?
The Background: In 2004, John Piper, pastor of Bethlehem Baptist Church in Minneapolis, delivered a sermon from Romans 11:25-32 titled "Israel, Palestine, and the Middle East." In it, he offers seven principles concerning the ever-contentious issue of "the Land":
1. God chose Israel from all the peoples of the world to be his own possession.
2. The Land was part of the inheritance he promised to Abraham and his descendants forever.
3. The promises made to Abraham, including the promise of the Land, will be inherited as an everlasting gift only by true, spiritual Israel, not disobedient, unbelieving Israel.
4. Jesus Christ has come into the world as the Jewish Messiah, and his own people rejected him and broke covenant with their God.
5. Therefore, the secular state of Israel today may not claim a present divine right to the Land, but they and we should seek a peaceful settlement not based on present divine rights, but on international principles of justice, mercy, and practical feasibility.
6. By faith in Jesus Christ, the Jewish Messiah, Gentiles become heirs of the promise of Abraham, including the promise of the Land.
7. Finally, this inheritance of Christ's people will happen at the Second Coming of Christ to establish his kingdom, not before; and till then, we Christians must not take up arms to claim our inheritance; but rather lay down our lives to share our inheritance with as many as we can.
Why It Matters: Wherever you land theologically or politically, the events of the past week mark yet another distressing development in the Israeli-Palestinian saga. This is a prime opportunity to pray. Pray for the Israelis, image-bearers of God, that they'd search the Scriptures and find life in the Savior (John 5:39-40, 46). May they discover that the meeting point between God and man is no longer a place---whether reconstructed temple or geographical partition---but a risen and reigning and soon returning Person (John 4:21-26).
Pray too for the Palestinians, image-bearers of God, that they'd turn in droves to Jesus the King. Pray particularly for our Palestinian brothers and sisters in the faith; there are, after all, far more Palestinian Christians in the Middle East than the news headlines imply.
May the Prince of Peace reveal what's been hidden (Luke 19:41-42) and bring everlasting shalom to a Land flowing with blood and hatred---with little milk and honey to be found.
Matt Smethurst serves as associate editor for The Gospel Coalition and lives in Louisville, Kentucky. You can follow him on Twitter.

Wednesday, November 14, 2012

The Problem with My Old Church was . . .

By  

Photo by 55Laney69.

That’s a phrase you will only hear in the modern, western church – particularly in the United States. In first century Jerusalem, if you didn’t like the music, the Pastor, or the amount of perfume Sister Bertha wore, you had to stay and work it out. Where else would you go?
Old ChurchDisclaimer: What I’m about to say has nothing to do with people who are far from God. I’m writing it to people who claim to know Him well. Read on.
I’m not promoting the idea of having only one church in every community. I think God is blessing a movement of multiplying churches that are helping to fill the earth with the good news of Jesus. But the side effect of our multiplying efforts is applying of the same consumer mentality we use at the mall to the church.
When you plant a new church in a community with a lot of churches, like northwest Arkansas for example, you come into contact with people now and then who are “looking for something new” because of the problems they encountered at their old church. I’ve heard plenty, including…
  • We just didn’t feel connected… Sometimes this is a church problem. Sometimes it’s a me problem. Some people will connect in one good church but not another good church.
  • We didn’t like the ________. Plenty of words find their way into that blank. The kids’ ministry. The way they gave to missions. The way they asked me to be, like, generous and stuff with my money.
  • We couldn’t get along with ________The Pastor? The Deacons? Sister Bertha? Whoever it is, our inability to reconcile broken relationships with other Christians is a shame. It’s a bad witness, and going to another church never solves the problem. It just transfers it.
  • We just weren’t getting fed. My favorite. As a Pastor, I usually translate this in my head into plain English… “We didn’t really like the Pastor, or the music, or the volume of the music. But the easiest thing to do is blame the Pastor for not ‘feeding’ us.” To this last one, I so often want to ask how long the person talking has been a Christian. If it’s a year or more, my next question would be, “When will you grow up enough to feed yourself?” Nonetheless…
If you, as a Pastor, play into these kinds of complaints, you’ve created a problem that will almost always come back to bite you, usually in a year or less. You’ve attempted to “sell” how much better your church is. You’ve hurt the brand of the church in general. And you’ve set the table for people with unreachable expectations, which is a Pastor-killing problem to begin with. Don’t do it. Instead say…
  • Oh, I’m a big fan of your old church and your old Pastor! You may not know him, or them, but that’s irrelevant. We’re in this thing called the kingdom together.
  • You may not like it here either. Because, if you complained about the music volume there, it will be the room temperature here. Here’s a secret worth remembering: complainers don’t like churches. At least not for more than a year, and that’s okay. Four out of the first five books of the Bible were all about how God feels about complainers.
  • You should go back and work things out. This one isn’t my idea – it’s Jesus.’ He stated it in the sermon on the mount when he told us to leave our gift at the altar and go work things out. Reconciliation is a primary agenda to the heart of God. We can’t just skip it and hope everything will just work itself out.
  • When will you grow up and feed yourself, you big spiritual baby? Just kidding. Don’t say this, because frankly and sadly, there are plenty of churches avoiding and watering down God’s truth. Still…
  • You are welcome here, IF God is calling you to be on mission with us. At the end of the day, we respect the priesthood of the believer. I don’t presume to know God’s will for anyone, so everyone is welcome to discover it as they walk with God.
We have plenty of people that have helped us plant Grace Hills who came from other area churches. Most of them didn’t leave in a huff or after a split. They simply felt called to help and drawn to the vision we’ve continually cast. But our real heart, together, will always be for the broken, the sinful, the lost.
I don’t care why a person who is far from God wound up sitting in a seat in our movie theater on Sunday. I’m just glad they’re present. But for the scattered community of seasoned saints around us, I’d rather you stay put where you’ve been serving, unless God has called you to join the mission and embrace the vision of a new, multiplying movement of God.
Here’s the bottom line. The biggest problem with my old church… was most likely named Brandon.

© 2011 Brandon Cox.
Brandon Cox is a Pastor who is planting Grace Hills Church in northwest Arkansas. He also serves as Editor and Community Facilitator for Pastors.com and Rick Warren’s Pastor’s Toolbox newsletter. He authors a top 100 blog for church leaders. You can catch him on TwitterFacebookGoogle+, or LinkedIn.

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Preparing for Sunday Morning Worship


From Davdi Mathis

Other Christians. Can't do corporate worship without them, and yet sometimes it feels like we can't really do corporate worship with them either.

How nice would it be if everyone would just mind their manners in weekend worship? So thinks our old self.

Let's admit it. We're tough on others, easy on ourselves. We assume others should give us the benefit of the doubt---which is the very thing we don't give to others.
She's the reason I'm distracted, the old self tells us.
If he weren't singing so loud---and so off key . . . 
If they would just get off their iPads and smart phones. I'm sure they're all doing emails, or social media, rather than looking at the Bible text or taking notes.
We love to blame our neighbor, or the worship leader, for our inability to engage in corporate worship. But the deeper problem usually belongs to the one who is distracted. Few things are more hypocritical than showing up to a worship gathering of the Friend of Sinners and bellyaching that other sinners showed up too.

Checking Our Own Souls

If there is gospel etiquette for the gathered church, it starts with evaluating my heart, not their actions. Frustration with others' distracting behavior---whether in the pew in front of me, or on the stage---is deeper and more dangerous than the nonchalance or negligence that sidetracks others.
Of course, there are rare exceptions when someone really is totally out of line. Such as the guy who brought his own tambourine one week. But even in the occasional instance where someone's worship conduct is seriously out of bounds, what if we started by asking ourselves some hard questions?
  • If love covers a multitude of sins (1 Peter 4:8), might God be calling me to look past this distraction I perceive?
  • Am I really applying John 13:34-35 ("love one another") to fellow Christians in weekly corporate worship? If we can't apply John 13:34-35 when the church is gathered, are we really going to apply this elsewhere?
The principle of walking in line with the gospel (Galatians 2:14) in corporate worship looks like this: In grace consider others enough to refrain from distracting them, and extend grace to those who you find to be distracting. Here are a few suggestions for how to think well of and for others in corporate worship.
1. Arrive early.
Not only does early arrival keep you from distracting others by coming in late after the service has started, but it also enables you to greet others and extend to them a welcome as they arrive. Ain't no shame in coming early for some social time. God's happy when his children love each other.
Also, arriving early (rather than late) helps us remember that the whole service is worship, not just the sermon. Even though we'd never say it, sadly we sometimes function as if everything before the sermon is some added extra or just the warm up for the preaching.The worship really begins when the preacher ascends to his pulpit. It's fine if we miss the first few minutes of singing. No big loss.
2. Park far, sit close.
This is one practical way to count others more significant than yourselves, and look not only to your own interests, but also to the interests of others (Philippians 2:3-4). Parking far leaves the better spots in the lot for those arriving after you, and sitting close leaves the seats near the doors easily accessible.
3. Participate heartily.
"Heartily" is an attempt to communicate a balanced kind of engaged participation---not being a mere spectator and not being that guy singing with the out-of-control volume. The problem of over-participating speaks for itself (quite literally), but in regard to under-participating, note that you are actually robbing others of the value of corporate worship when you don't engage. Your presence is a part, and your voice is a part as well. The experience of corporate worship is enriched when all the attendees participate.
4. Smile.
I'm not counseling you to fake it or put on airs. Corporate worship is a time for gladness and excitement, not dourness and mere duty. Try to make the most of your morning before attending corporate worship, and let your gladness be contagious. Like George Mueller, seek to get your soul happy in Jesus, and ask God for help to spill over some of your soul satisfaction on others.
5. Stay late and engage others.
Come on the look for people, transition Godward in the worship gathering, and leave on the look for others. Some of the most significant conversations in the life of the church happen immediately after worship gatherings. Relationally, this is one of the most strategic times during the week to be available and on the lookout for
  • new faces you can make feel welcomed
  • old faces you can connect with
  • hurting people you can comfort
  • happy people you can be encouraged by.
Sometimes you just gotta go after a service. We get it. That's okay. There are special events, or unusual demands, or seasons of life with small, antsy children. But if you're bouncing out the doors every week as soon as possible after the services ends (or even before it's over), you're at least not making the most of corporate worship.
6. Come to receive from God and give to others.
This is the banner over all the other charges. Come to corporate worship on the lookout for feeding on God and his grace, and on the lookout for giving grace to others. Come to be blessed by God, and to bless others. Receive from him, give to them.
We're prone to get this backwards. We come to worship thinking that we're somehow giving to God, and we subtly expect we'll be receiving from others. We desperately need to turn that pattern on its head.
The God we worship is one not "served by human hands, as though he needed anything, since he himself gives to all mankind life and breath and everything" (Acts 17:25). And when he came in the flesh, he did so "not to be served but to serve, and to give his life as a ransom for many" (Mark 10:45). Beware coming to corporate worship to serve God. But by all means, come on the lookout to serve others. Worshiping God and building up others aren't mutually exclusive but come to their fullness together.
We give to one another as we together come to receive from God our soul's satisfaction. We kill both the vertical and horizontal of corporate worship when we come looking to give to God and receive from others.
David Mathis (@davidcmathis) is an elder at Bethlehem Baptist Church, Twin Cities, and executive editor at Desiring God. He writes regularly at www.desiringGod.org.

The Eternal Impact of One Question


What amazes me is to see the providential and extra ordinary work of God in the ordinary events of the day.  It was seventy years ago, a man from the Cakchiquel tribe of Guatemala asked missionary William Cameron Townsend a rude but crucial question. “If your God is so smart, then why doesn’t He speak my language?” God used that complaint to convince Townsend that every man, woman, and child should be able to read God’s Word in their own language. Townsend went on to found Wycliffe Bible Translators.   We have no idea how the ordinary events of our lives will impact our destiny or the destiny of those around us.  It could be a conversation or a question to a coworker, a friend or your child that may change the course of their lives!  Be aware that every day eternity is making its ways into our lives and the lives of those around us.  What could God be doing in your life today or the lives of those you touch?